July 13, 1999
(Finance)

Minister responds to population projections

Finance Minister Paul Dicks today responded to published reports projecting a drastic decline in Newfoundland and Labrador's population over the next 20 years, saying the Statistics Canada scenario is farfetched.

"This projection is based on estimates of the number of births, deaths and migration based on past trends," said the minister. "Forecasting population can be difficult and subject to considerable error. For example, in 1994 Statistics Canada projected that our population would be 581,200 in 1998. However, the actual population turned out to be 543,800, an error of 37,400."

"Recent population declines in Newfoundland and Labrador are due to two factors, out-migration and a low birth rate. Both are related to the economic uncertainty created by the collapse of the groundfishery in 1992," said the minister.

Newfoundland and Labrador has already responded positively to the challenge presented by the closure of the groundfishery in 1992.

"Since then, the province has made considerable progress addressing the groundfishery closure and revitalizing the economy," said Minister Dicks. "In the first half of this year, employment was 10,000 higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 5.3 per cent which was the highest of any province in the country. The information technology sector has grown 25 per cent over the past year. The value of the fishery this year is projected to be $800 million, $100 million more than last year and nearly $300 million more than it was prior to 1992, and our oil industry is growing rapidly."

Minister Dicks said given the resurgence in the fishery and the continued growth of the province's economy, the large population declines projected in the Statistics Canada report are unrealistic.

"The province is enjoying strong economic growth. That is the antidote to out-migration," said Minister Dicks. "I believe, and our figures back it up, that out-migration is slowing and will continue to slow. This will lead, over time, to the stabilization of our population and perhaps even an increase."

Media contact: Lynn Barter, Communications, (709) 729-0084.

1999 07 13                       4:05 p.m.