Fall starts with new highs in employment numbers

According to Statistics Canada�s Labour Force Survey, employment for the province continued to grow in August, marking 21 months of consecutive year-over-year gains.

Employment increased by 2.1 per cent in August, or by 4,900 jobs, as compared to the same month last year. Along with the employment increase, the unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 14.8 per cent, the lowest unemployment rate for the month of August since 1989. Likewise, improvements in the employment numbers were reflected across most regions of the province.

The August 2002 employment level saw a record high for August of 233,300 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians employed. This compares to 218,300 persons in August 2000, and 211,300 in August 1997.

"It's very encouraging to see strong employment growth through the first eight months of 2002," said Ralph Wiseman, Minister of Human Resources and Employment. "We expect that the start up of construction at White Rose and Voisey�s Bay will continue to boost employment in the remaining months of 2002 and into 2003."

Seasonally adjusted figures indicate employment gains of 0.1 per cent in August 2002 over July 2002, and an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. Seasonally adjusted data looks at patterns of employment change within the current year from one month to the next, whereas the actual data compares employment this year to employment last year.

Employment gains were widespread in both the goods and services sectors. Industries recording growth included primary fishing, manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical services, and management services.

Social assistance caseloads continue to show a general downward trend with an active case count of 27,898 for the month of August - the lowest August figure since 1992.

Minister Wiseman concluded: "A stronger labour market, coupled with the general drop in the social assistance caseload, is good news for the province. It exemplifies the long-term improvement of our provincial economy especially as we move into the construction phase for Voisey�s Bay and White Rose."

Media contact: Simon Lono, Communications, (709) 729-4062.

Backgrounder

Why does Government comment on unadjusted 
labour force data rather than seasonally adjusted data?

• While both types of data (unadjusted and seasonally adjusted) are statistically valid for long-term comparisons, government comments and interpretations are based on unadjusted data.
  
  

• Government analyzes labour market data to determine progress on a year-over-year basis. Because seasonally adjusted data looks at change within the current year (from one month to the next) while unadjusted data compares employment on a year-over-year basis, government uses unadjusted data for comparative purposes.
  
  

• Statistics Canada�s own analysis indicates that, due to factors influencing labour markets, a minimum period of three to four months should be used interpreting the trend in seasonally adjusted data for this province. This suggests that month-to-month trends (e.g., August over July) are less accurate than longer-term analysis such as that used by the province.
  
  

• Many seasonal industries in the province have irregular start and end dates. For example, employment in fish harvesting is dependent on quotas, price agreements with processors, and ice conditions. The same issue holds for major construction projects which impacts on one year, but not the next. This makes interpretation of seasonally adjusted data difficult from one period to the next.
  
  

• On a year-to-date (longer term) basis in 2002, for example, both types of data show employment growth to be about 2.1 per cent. A month-to-month (August over July 2002) comparison, however, shows a marginal increase in employment of 0.1 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. This result is not consistent with year-to-date trends, and with other statistical and anecdotal information available to government.
  
  

• Government will continue to report on the Labour Force Survey and other data series in a credible, consistent and appropriate manner, and will do so looking at longer term unadjusted comparisons.

2002 09 06                  4:30 p.m.